Bitcoin will grow. New prediction session.

 

It is funny to see analysts literally with a magnifying glass looking for signs of early approval of Bitcoin ETF. How the head of the SEC Gary Gensler spoke, what the representatives of BlackRock write in social networks, how satisfied was the look of Grayscale managers. Looking for any informational occasion that is immediately blown up and broadcast on social networks.

Bitcoin ETF is beginning to be considered a magic pill capable of making a real spider-man out of a bitcoin-subtle schoolboy.

 

I fear that too much enthusiasm can lead to unfortunate consequences. High expectations tend to result in losses.

 

Bitcoin ETF by itself does not change the nature of the asset. It will certainly expand the audience, although it is difficult to say how much. It will grow if, for some reason, investors are interested in finding new assets. That seems to be the situation.

 

The United States has announced its largest spending for an increase in its military budget and foreign aid. On the one hand, this is excellent news for companies involved in military production. However, the question immediately arises: where is the money coming from, especially if we take into account the budget deficit?

 

Money can come from the same source namely borrowing. It means we expect the debt ceiling and rising of the default risk. Consequently, long-term bonds and treasury obligations become risky. Investors will look (and are already looking) for alternatives.

 

The classic alternative is gold. The modern innovative alternative is bitcoin.

 

The chances of growth are real.

 

And the same real chances of a subsequent fall when the market stabilizes and the risks return to their original state.

 

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